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Put/Call ratio


To calculate the Put/Call ratio, divide the volume of put option contracts by the volume of call option contracts. Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) calculates this ratio.

To smooth out the rapid changes in this ratio, a 10-day moving average is often used.

When the market is very bullish, the volume of call options will be much larger than the volume of put options because traders are optimistic about future price movements. The Put/Call Ratio may be around 0.6. Because bullishness has reached an extreme level, many traders anticipate a downtrend at this level.

When the Put/Call Ratio is around 0.8, the market attitude is considered neutral. Naturally there is a tendency for more calls to be sold than puts.

The volume of call options will be smaller than the volume of put options, when the market is very bearish because traders are pessimistic about future price movements. At this time the Put/Call Ratio may be around 1.1. When the Put/Call Ratio rises above 1.0, many traders anticipate a new uptrend because bearishness has reached an extreme level.

The Put/Call ratio gives an indication of the level or bullishness or bearishness in the market because a put/call ratio indicator is considered a sentiment indicator. Because it indicates a possible reversal of trend, a sentiment indicator is interpreted in a contrarian sense. It warns of a downturn in the market when there is extreme bullishness. It is also interpreted as a precursor to an upturn in the market when there is extreme bearishness.

The McClellan Oscillator or the Arms Index can be used as further confirmation of an indicated trend reversal in conjunction with Call/Put ratio.

 


Best Months

Oct 2009:

 +446%

Sep 2009:

 +375%

Aug 2009:

 +113%

July 2009:

 +213%

June. 2009:

 +235%

May. 2009:

 +88%

Apr. 2009:

 +367%

Mar. 2009:

 +91%

Feb. 2009:

 +210%

Jan. 2009:

 +170%

Oct. 2008:

 +155%

Aug. 2008:

 +124%

July 2008:

 +168%

Apr 2008:

 +224%

Mar 2008:

 +241%

Feb 2008:

 +341%

Dec 2007:

 +227%

Nov 2007:

+167%

Oct 2007:

+127%

Jan. 2007:

 +83%

Nov. 2006:

+122%

Oct. 2006:

  +71%

Aug. 2006:

  +74%

July 2006:

  +73%

Mar. 2006:

  +75%

Based on actual trades autotraded by major brokers

Uncovered SPY Options Signals
Past 3 Months

+351%

-3%

Our
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Buy
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As of 2/8/2010

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DISCLAIMER: THIS INFORMATION IS INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY FINANCIAL ADVICE. RISK IS INVOLVED IN ALL STYLES OF MONEY MANAGEMENT. Uncovered options trading involves greater risk than stock trading. You absolutely must make your own decisions before acting on any information obtained from this Website.

The return results represented on the web site are based on the premium received for the selling options short and do not reflect margin. It is recommended to contact your broker about margin requirements on uncovered options trading before using any information on this web site. Use our "
Trade Calculator" to recalculate our past performance in relation to the margin requirements, brokerage commissions and other trading related expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
   
 

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2/9/2010 - SV1
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